Monday, 21 January 2019

Reconsidering Radicalization: Fanaticism and the Link Between Ideas and Violence


By Bart Schuurman and Max Taylor


Abstract
A central issue with many interpretations of radicalization remains their tendency to overemphasize the role of extremist beliefs in motivating involvement in terrorism. After elaborating on this critique, the authors propose that ‘fanaticism’, a concept developed by Taylor in the early 1990s, offers a way of overcoming this deficiency in radicalization-based approaches through its conditional understanding of when radical beliefs can lead to violent behavior. Primary-sources driven empirical analysis supports both the critique of radicalization and the discussion of fanaticism’s benefits. Results are relevant to both academics and counterterrorism practitioners working to understand the role of extremist beliefs in motivating involvement in terrorist violence.

Introduction
The concept of ‘radicalization’ has come to dominate debates on the processes leading to  involvement in terrorism. Simultaneously, radicalization has attracted considerable criticism on definitional, conceptual and empirical grounds. This article argues that a central shortcoming of radicalization-based thinking remains its tendency to implicitly or explicitly see involvement in terrorism as stemming from the adoption of radical beliefs, even though the vast majority of radicals never become involved in terrorism and not all terrorists are primarily motivated by their beliefs. Two points are made. First, the authors illustrate that the overemphasis on the role of beliefs remains prevalent, despite the recent development of several conceptually and theoretically more nuanced interpretations of radicalization. Second, the concept of ‘fanaticism’ as developed by Taylor in the early 1990s is revisited precisely because it provides a conditional understanding of when radical beliefs can lead to violent behavior. Through a conceptual discussion supported by primary-sources driven empirical analysis, the authors contribute to the larger debate on the role that convictions can play in motivating involvement in terrorist groups and terrorist violence.

Background
For well over a decade, academics, policy makers, journalists and the general public have been debating involvement in terrorism as a process characterized by ‘radicalization’. The concept’s obverse, ‘deradicalization’, has similarly become central to more recent questions about if and how former terrorists can be re-integrated into society.Despite its ubiquitous use, radicalization has also attracted considerable criticism. Skeptics have noted its inherently subjective nature, the lack of agreement on definitional issues and the sometimes linear and deterministic conceptualizations that made radicalization seem like a ‘conveyor belt’ to involvement in terrorism. Recent years have seen the development of notably more nuanced interpretations that have considerably advanced insights into how, why and when people may become involved in terrorism. Even so, a central shortcoming of radicalization has continued to exert a detrimental influence; namely, the frequently found assumption that the adoption of radical beliefs precedes and leads to involvement in terrorism. Ideologies, whether religious or political in nature, are undoubtedly important to understanding individuals’ and groups’ decisions about committing acts of terrorist violence. The promise of a utopian future (or as is more likely among today’s terrorists, afterlife), the identification of obstacles standing in the way of its realization and the rationalization of violent means as the most effective and indeed only way of overcoming them, allow some belief systems to both motivate and justify terrorism. Shared beliefs also form an important part of the social cohesion that keeps terrorist groups together. Yet, important as they are, the adoption of radical beliefs alone is not a necessary or sufficient condition for involvement in terrorism. As is illustrated by the references found throughout this paper, and the concrete examples given in later segments, many interpretations of radicalization continue to overstate the role of beliefs in bringing about involvement in terrorism. This conflation of ideas and behavior is problematic for several reasons. Terrorists may have learned to describe their motivations in ideological terms during their socialization into the group. 

Secondly, such justifications may obscure other motivating factors that could be of equal or greater significance. Most importantly, the vast majority of ‘radicals’ never become involved in terrorism and research has shown that not all terrorists are primarily motivated by their convictions. The goal of this article is to highlight the ongoing and detrimental influence of this ‘specificity gap’ and to suggest a way to overcome it. To do so effectively, it is crucial to avoid a straw man argument in which the concept of radicalization is presented without any appreciation for its development over time or the many thoughtful interpretations of it that exist. The focus here is on those conceptualizations of radicalization that see it as a cognitive process of increasing adherence to radical views which is then implicitly or explicitly tied to involvement in terrorism. As discussed later on in this paper, not all interpretations of radicalization are so cognitively focused or tie beliefs to behavior quite so strongly. Yet this particular understanding of radicalization remains entrenched among counterterrorism policy makers in particular and still holds strong in the academic  debate, despite the development of more nuanced alternatives. Indeed, the conflation of radical beliefs with radical behavior is argued to be the defining feature of radicalization as it is generally understood. While demonstrating the ongoing influence of that conflation is useful in itself, this article wants to help move the debate forward by suggesting a way in which the potential for radical beliefs to inspire involvement in terrorist violence can be better understood. To do so, this article revisits the concept of ‘fanaticism’ as it was developed by Taylor in the early 1990s. Although fanaticism might at first glance appear to be merely radicalization under a different name, this concept makes the ability of radical ideas to influence behavior conditional on a number of contextual factors. It also provides a practicable way of assessing the degree to which fanatical beliefs influence a particular individual. Taken together, these elements endow ‘fanaticism’ with the specificity lacking in those interpretations of radicalization that conflate the adoption of radical beliefs with
involvement in radical behavior.

Outline

This article was inspired by the first author’s PhD thesis on how and why involvement in a Dutch homegrown jihadist group called the ‘Hofstadgroup’ came about. While researching and writing this project, the utility of the radicalization concept was repeatedly drawn into question. This sparked an interest in critically exploring the concept’s origins and development in more detail, both in relation to its use in academia as well as among counterterrorism policymakers. Owing to its origins in the PhD, this article draws on the Hofstadgroup as a case study at two points in these pages: first as a demonstration of radicalization’s limited utility and, several pages later, to advocate the benefits of fanaticism as a different conceptualization of the potential for beliefs to inspire terrorist violence.

Before turning to these examples, the study’s methodology is briefly outlined and an expanded critique of ‘radicalization’-based explanations for involvement in terrorism is provided. This critique first takes a look at the etymology of radicalization to help untangle radicalism from the related concepts extremism and terrorism. Next, a brief overview of the development of the radicalization concept will emphasize that the debate has certainly not been stagnant, nor can it be reduced to one-dimensional perspectives. Still, despite the emergence of more nuanced conceptualizations, the conflation of radical beliefs with involvement in terrorism continues to be dominant among counterterrorism policy makers and practitioners, as well as within significant parts of the academic debate. Using examples from the academic literature and government documents, the last part of the critique will demonstrate this problematic state of affairs to underline the need to develop alternative approaches. Subsequently, the Hofstadgroup case study is introduced. It provides an example of an act of terrorist violence that, at first glance, epitomizes those interpretations of radicalization which see the adoption of radical beliefs as a precursor to involvement in violent behavior. Closer inspection, however, reveals it to be a practical example of radicalization’s tendency to conflate ideas and behavior to an unwarranted degree. Following this first use of the case study as a demonstration of radicalization’s limitations, the concept of fanaticism is introduced. Once its contours have been outlined, the Hofstadgroup is brought back in and used to demonstrate fanaticism’s considerable utility for addressing why only some of those who hold radical views will act on them. The conclusion summarizes these arguments and briefly discusses the practical utility of fanaticism for the counterterrorism community.

Methodology
This study is qualitative in nature and draws primarily on a literature review. The critique of radicalization is based upon articles, books and ‘grey literature’ found through a Google Scholar search that was expanded using snowballing, whereby promising references in the material found on Google Scholar were followed up. The Hofstadgroup case study is based on an in-depth assessment of primary-sources; namely the Dutch police files on the group and semi-structured interviews with former participants. Both of these types of sources were originally studied for the first author’s PhD thesis and revisited for the purposes of this study.

A Critique of Radicalization Epistemology: Radicalism, Extremism and Terrorism

The origins of the contemporary use of radicalization within the policymaker and academic debate on terrorism can be traced to the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The previously popular ‘root causes’ approach to discussing the origins of terrorism gradually made way for ‘radicalization’, in part because the former was deemed by some to imply a degree of understanding for the perpetrators’ motives.Radicalization began to dominate the debate after the 2004 Madrid attacks and 2005’s bombing of London’s public transportation system. From the outset, the conflation of ideas and behavior was apparent. The classic example of this early thinking on radicalization is the definition found in an influential 2007 study published by the New York Police Department, which referred to a ‘progression of searching, finding, adopting, nurturing, and developing [an] extreme belief system to the point where it acts as a catalyst for a terrorist act’ and is subdivided into four distinct stages. Set within a broader historical context, the alleged links between radical thoughts and violent behavior are far from clear. Etymologically, radicalism stems from the Latin word ‘radix’, which can be translated as ‘root’ and which in turn speaks to some of the connotations that radicalism conjures, such as fundamental, thorough, drastic and rigorous. Bötticher finds that, for most of the 19th and 20th centuries, radicalism was associated with anti-establishment political doctrines that were in large part progressive and emancipatory in nature. While opponents often imbued it with negative connotations, this modern radicalism played an important role in bringing about changes such as voting rights for women that are today part and parcel of mainstream thinking in Western democracies. Throughout its development over the past two centuries, radicalism tended to advocate far-reaching or even fundamental changes without calling for the complete overthrow or destruction of the existing socio-political order. In terms of how to achieve those goals, radicalism is not an intellectual position that is inherently in favor of violence as the most suitable means, even though some radicals certainly propagated its use. There is a case to be made for the position that non-violent radicalism could be seen as being part and parcel of healthy democratic societies. 

The much more recent conflation of radicalism with terrorism is therefore quite problematic, as it lumps together individuals, groups and ideas that can and have advocated for progressive societal change with the motivations and justifications for a widely-deplored form of political violence. This conflation appears to stem, at least in part, from confusion over the related concept of extremism. The opinions of radicals may be disagreeable or even abhorrent, but as long as radicals retain a basic adherence to the democratic political order, they could be considered a healthy if at times disconcerting part of that order. In contrast, extremism is a way of thinking that accepts no compromise, sees no middle ground and warrants no limitations on its objectives or means for achieving them. As Schmid aptly summarizes and defines extremism, “[w]hile radicals might be violent or not, might be democrats or not, extremists are never democrats. Their state of mind tolerates no diversity. They are also positively in favour of the use of force to obtain and maintain political power (...). Extremists generally tend to have inflexible ‘closed minds’, adhering to a simplified monocausal interpretation of the world where you are either with them or against them, part of the problem or part of the solution.” Because it is much more closely tied to a belief in the efficacy of violence, extremism more accurately describes convictions liable to see terrorism as justified and necessary. Still, it would be inaccurate to argue that extremism
necessarily leads to terrorism or that all terrorists are ideological extremists for many of the same reasons that apply to radicalism. Radicalism and extremism are perhaps best seen as different points on a scale that reflects the degree to which violence is seen as legitimate and necessary to achieve far-reaching change. This allows a distinction to be made between those who pursue far-reaching change and might see violence as legitimate under certain circumstances (radicals) and those who will always favor the use of violence to achieve what they want (extremists). The terms radicalism and extremism are used in this fashion throughout the remainder of this article.

When these concepts influence behavior, they may lead to terrorism. Terrorism is a heavily debated concept that suffers from being highly subjective, politicized and frequently used to designate non-state actors only. Because it is careful to avoid these pitfalls, Schmid’s 2011 ‘academic consensus definition’ on terrorism recommends itself as a way to further clarify the issues at stake. “Terrorism refers on the one hand to a doctrine about the presumed effectiveness of a special form or tactic of fear-generating, coercive political violence and, on the other hand, to a conspiratorial practice of calculated, demonstrative, direct violent action without legal or moral restraints, targeting mainly civilians and non-combatants, performed for its propagandistic and psychological effects on various audiences and conflict parties.” Seen in this light, terrorism is neither solely the realm of non-state actors or the domain of ideological extremists. It is essentially a type of warfare that any party to a conflict can adopt when they believe it to be in their best interests. Terrorism is a tactic; a particular way of using deadly force that can stem from extremist beliefs just as much as it can be adopted for reasons of expediency. For instance, the strategic bombing campaigns carried out by WWII belligerents in part deliberately targeted civilian populations to hurt and demoralize them to the extent that they would push their governments to sue for peace. Such deliberate use of terror stemmed from a pragmatic perspective on the use air power, rather than from extremist convictions. In short, it is inaccurate to conflate radical or extremist beliefs with involvement in terrorist violence. Not all extremists become terrorists and not all terrorists are ideological extremists. It is this dual disconnect between ideas and behavior that is at the heart of the debate about radicalization.

The Evolution of Radicalization
It would certainly be inaccurate to argue that all researchers simplify the relationship between beliefs and behavior. Over the past decade, various scholars and government agencies have come to see radicalization more broadly as the process leading up to involvement in terrorism. In Horgan’s case, for example, “violent radicalisation (…) encompasses the phases of a) becoming involved with a terrorist group and b) remaining involved and engaging in terrorist activity.”  For Kruglanski et al., radicalization is “a movement in the direction of supporting or enacting radical behavior.” McCauley and Moskalenko view it as “increased preparation for and commitment to intergroup conflict.” Several relatively complex models for involvement in terrorism, such as Moghaddam’s ‘staircase’ and McCauley and Moskalenko’s ‘pyramid’ models fit this interpretation of  radicalization’, even though some of their authors never used this terminology.  In a way, these authors see radicalization as encompassing everything that happens “before the bomb goes off.” Alongside this broader conceptualization of radicalization as the process of becoming involved in terrorism, several schools of thought have developed with regard to its potential drivers. 

Koehler identifies four such approaches. Firstly, sociological perspectives have stressed the influence of environmental conditions. Secondly, social movement theory has emphasized the role of ‘radical milieus’, small-group dynamics and antagonistic competition with the state as driving forces. Thirdly, empirical approaches have looked at radicalization inductively and drawn attention to the variety of personal characteristics, backgrounds and involvement pathways found among participants in terrorist groups. Psychological perspectives, finally, have turned to the influence of such factors as (relative) deprivation, altruism, identification with the victims of perceived injustice and the various emotional, cognitive and social benefits of group membership to account for involvement pathways. Among psychological factors, the experience of personal crises is particularly interesting as the potential ‘spark’ that may explain why only some individuals adopt extremist beliefs and violent modes of  behavior, even though many more are exposed to similar circumstances.

 Moreover, research has highlighted and begun to explore the heterogeneity of involvement processes. Not only can people become involved in terrorism for a variety of reasons, but ‘involvement’ itself takes a multitude of forms. More participants in terrorist groups are involved with fund-raising, recruitment, propaganda and logistic than are actually planting bombs or shooting people. The factors governing such role allocation, and the reasons why people might adopt, abandon or switch between such roles, form fascinating new areas of study and are a further reminder of the complexity of the issues at stake. These developments have underlined that involvement in terrorism stems from heterogeneous processes in which a multitude of factors, at various levels of analysis, play a role. This has enabled an analytical scope that extends beyond the narrow confines of the individual and his or her internalization of evermore radical or extremist beliefs. Indeed, the emphasis on the individual found in many approaches to radicalization may have made us underemphasize the many relevant factors found at the group and structural levels of analysis. As Bartlett and Miller argue, involvement in terrorism is not just an intellectual process of adopting extremist beliefs, but one in which social, emotional and status-related factors play an important role. 

One particular area in which a nuanced understanding regarding the role of beliefs vis-à-vis involvement in terrorism has developed, concerns research on deradicalization and disengagement. With increasing numbers of returning foreign fighters as well as considerable numbers of homegrown radicals and extremists, many affected governments have been keen to create programs to reduce the chances of terrorism-related recidivism. Many of these initiatives rely in part or entirely on the problematic notion that, as extremist beliefs guide involvement in terrorism, desistance from this form of political violence must be predicated on weaning away individuals from those convictions; ‘deradicalizing’ them so that they no longer believe that violence is justified and necessary. Research in this field has repeatedly shown, however, that the reasons why people may choose to abandon terrorism are as diverse as those that led to involvement in the first place. Frequently, they do not (primarily) revolve around a change in beliefs, but may be predicated on disillusionment with the efficacy of violence, strife with other group members, or the desire to build a career or create a family outside of the confines of terrorism. Essentially, terrorist may ‘disengage’ behaviorally from using or supporting terrorism while remaining committed to their extremist worldviews. Drawing attention to this crucial distinction has had significant consequences for the design, implementation and evaluation of re-integration or rehabilitation efforts for terrorist and extremists. Such research embodies the considerable strides that have been made in the study of this form of political violence since ‘radicalization’ was first coined.

Enduring Issues in Research and Practice

Clearly, there are trends in radicalization research that have moved it beyond its conceptually narrow origins. Yet, in addition to interpretations of radicalization that see it as essentially encompassing the processes that can lead to involvement in terrorism, a second and perhaps more prevalent perspective sees radicalization as the internalization of radical or extremist beliefs. Neumann, for instance, argues that “at the most basic level, radicalization can be defined as the process whereby people become extremists.” Similarly, Slootman and Tillie, as well as Buijs and Demant, see radicalization as a process centered on the ‘delegitimization’ of the established societal and political order, leading to a desire for radical change that in its most extreme form could include the use of violence.Horgan distinguishes ‘violent radicalization’ from ‘radicalization’, with the latter signifying the “social and psychological process of incrementally experienced commitment to extremist political or religious ideology.” Here the core of the issue becomes apparent. While none of the above authors claim that the adoption of radical or extremist convictions necessarily leads to involvement in terrorist behavior, such a link is often implied and frequently explicated by others in the broader literature on terrorism. The classic example remains Silber and Bhatt’s work and their argument that the adoption of extremist beliefs acts as a catalyst for involvement in terrorism. But such a view is not an anachronistic holdover from radicalization’s early days.

In 2010, Dalgaard-Nielsen wrote of ‘violent radicalization’ as a “process in which radical ideas are accompanied by the development of a willingness to directly support or engage in violent acts.” The same year, Neumann typified it as “the process (or processes) whereby individuals or groups come to approve of and (ultimately) participate in the use of violence for political aims.” Other more recent examples include the multinational EU-funded ‘Safire’ project, which used a 2002 definition by the European Council and saw radicalization as “the phenomenon of people embracing opinions, views and ideas which could lead to acts of terrorism.”In their 2016 book, Koomen and Van der Pligt add a qualification but still tie beliefs to behavior by arguing that radicalization “is the development of belief in opinions, views and ideas that might well result in a person committing acts of terror.” This problem is more pronounced in government circles, where it is also more pernicious due to the interventions and policies that are actually implemented based on these assumptions. The German Federal Police (BKA) sees it as “the increasing adoption among individuals and groups of an extremist way of thinking and action and the growing willingness to support and / or use illegitimate means, including the use of force, to achieve their objectives.” In a 2015 document on the UK government’s ‘prevent’ strategy, radicalization is defined as “the process by which a person comes to support terrorism and extremist ideologies associated with terrorist groups.” The Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) outlined a similar perspective on radicalization in 2014, namely as “an attitude that entails the willingness to accept the ultimate consequences of a system of thought and to transmute them into action.” For the European Commission, “violent radicalisation’ entails people ‘embracing opinions, views and ideas which could lead to acts of terrorism.”

As a final example, it is interesting to note that some non-governmental organizations operating in the field of radicalization prevention also hold to similar interpretations. For instance, the Montreal based Centre for the Prevention of Radicalization leading to Violence (CPRLV) explicitly states that radicalization entails “[t]he merging of ideology and violent action.” Few of those who have studied radicalization in depth will argue that beliefs alone are sufficient to explain involvement in terrorism. Likewise, not all government definitions directly conflate radicalism with violence. Yet, as the examples given above demonstrate, within the academic as well as the  counterterrorism policy maker and practitioner communities, an overemphasis on the role of ideas is still present. The conflation of ideas with behavior is not only conceptually problematic, as previous sections have discussed, but empirically poorly supported. Opinion surveys have found adherence to radical Islamist beliefs to be unrelated with support for terrorism. Strikingly, research has also shown that not all those who do become terrorists are (primarily) motivated by extremist ideologies. This applies even to some instances of suicide terrorism, a form of violence that would at first glance appear to be the archetypical example of extremist beliefs put into practice. Moreover, several scholars have argued that policies and programs intended to counter 
or prevent radicalization have unduly stigmatized Muslim communities.[61] Radicalization’s definitional, conceptual and empirical issues are therefore far from a matter of mere academic importance.

Radicalization’s Gap Between Convictions and Behavior in Practice

Having outlined the various concerns with radicalization as a concept, the following paragraphs turn to the Hofstadgroup case to provide a brief illustration of its limitations in practice. The Hofstadgroup was an ambiguously defined group consisting of approximately 40 individuals, centered on smaller hard-core of committed Salafi-Jihadist extremists. Although active in numerous Dutch cities, the group was named by the Dutch security and intelligence agency AIVD using a colloquial reference to The Hague, where many meetings took place. During the first two years of its existence, the group’s most militant participants were focused on traveling to jihadist groups in Chechnya and Afghanistan as foreign fighters. Unlike the more recent generation of jihadist travelers, these Hofstadgroup participants were unable to reach their destinations, in large part because traveling to Chechnya and Afghanistan in 2002-2003 was considerably more difficult than reaching Syria was until relatively recently. In early 2004, after these attempts at joining the jihad abroad had failed, some of the group’s inner circle began to conduct preparations for bringing jihad to the Netherlands instead. Several plots were developed, but the one that came to fruition was the November 2004 murder of the controversial filmmaker Theo van Gogh. In the wake of this attack, the police arrested most the group’s participants. In 2005, a ‘second generation’ of the group emerged that once again began developing terrorist plots. This led to a second round of arrests in October 2005 that brought the group to its definite end. The Hofstadgroup had too many idiosyncratic qualities to truly embody the moniker of a ‘quintessential’ example of homegrown jihadism it was once given. But although it may not be the blueprint for European homegrown jihadism, it still remains an instructive case from which to develop insights into this broader trend. The group’s loose organizational structure and its participants’ capacity for terrorist violence despite their lack
of (significant) paramilitary training or experience, make it a representative example of a subset of homegrown jihadism that has included numerous groups with similar attributes. 

Furthermore, the ambitions of the group’s militant inner circle to become foreign fighters, tie it directly to one of the most notable aspects of the current jihadist threat. Finally, the murder of Van Gogh arguably was a key influence on the radicalization debate because the perpetrator was indeed strongly influenced by his beliefs. The case is also interesting because the first author of the present paper was able to study it in-depth using primary sources. These include the extensive files collated by the Dutch police during its various investigations into this group in the 2003-2005 period. Additionally, the first author conducted semi-structured interviews with former participants, one set of which is drawn upon here. Such data remains underutilized in research on terrorism and allows this case to offer detailed and empirically-substantiated insights. Thus, although an older case, the Hofstadgroup is still well-suited to support the arguments made here. The following paragraphs discusses three Hofstadgroup participants whose use, or planned use of, terrorist violence places them squarely in its militant inner-circle and makes them especially well-suited to assessing the potential for extremist beliefs to motivate terrorist attacks. At first glance, a reconstruction of the process through which Van Gogh’s murderer came to embrace violence appears to underline the validity of radicalization-based thinking. His attacker was a 26-years old Dutchman called Mohammed Bouyeri, who had gone from an apparently well-integrated member of society to a violent Islamist extremist in the space of several years. In the early 2000s, Bouyeri was enrolled in higher education, participating in community service and enjoying a lifestyle in which religion did not appear to play a big role.  He was, however, prone to violent outbursts. In 2001, this culminated in Bouyeri stabbing a police officer in an Amsterdam park, for which he was sentenced to several months imprisonment later that year.

This turn of events, and in particular the death of Bouyeri’s mother later that same year, brought about a selfdescribed ‘search for truth’ that led to a reorientation on his Islamic faith. Between early 2002 and the murder of Van Gogh in November 2004, Bouyeri rapidly adopted an increasingly fundamentalist, then radical and ultimately clearly extremist interpretation of Islam. Among the tenets of his newfound religious beliefs, was the conviction that the murder of blasphemers was not merely justified and necessary in an abstract sense, but an obligation he had to carry out personally. The many writings and translations left behind by Bouyeri are a further tribute to the key role played by extremist beliefs in motivating his act of terrorist violence. As he told his family in a farewell letter, he had carried out the attack in order to “fulfill my duty to Allah and to trade my soul for paradise.” Radicalization, understood as a cognitive process in which the adoption of extremist beliefs precedes involvement in terrorist violence, therefore appears to offer a convincing explanation for the pathway that led to the filmmaker’s death. But although it is highly applicable to this particular individual, radicalization loses much of its explanatory abilities when applied as a framework to study the pathways that led other participants in the Hofstadgroup to become involved. Not only did the majority of the participants in this radical group with an extremist inner-circle never act on their beliefs, the motives of the inner-circle militants who did plan to commit acts of terrorist violence show the influence of a host of factors besides extremist beliefs alone. One young man’s example is particularly revealing with regard to the variety and fluidity of the factors driving the process that led to involvement in the group and, ultimately, arrest on terrorism-related charges.

To ensure his privacy and safety, the following description has been anonymized. His process towards involvement in the Hofstadgroup began when the individual in question was unable to obtain the internship needed to complete his studies, to his mind because of labor-market discrimination against people of Moroccan descent. Interestingly, this experience did not motivate involvement but enabled it; left with an abundance of idle time, he visited mosques more often. This led him to become acquainted with an older Syrian man who convinced him that his failure to get an internship had nothing to do with his Moroccan background, but was instead related his being a Muslim in a land of unbelievers. Seeing he had piqued the individual’s interest, this Syrian man then put him in touch with the Hofstadgroup. At least initially, it was not the radical and extremist discussions being held at Hofstadgroup gatherings that bound this individual to the group. Instead, he simply enjoyed spending time with people who he got along well with. Only gradually did he adopt the Salafi-Jihadist convictions brandished by the group’s inner-circle. Grouplevel factors were thus critical to binding him to the Hofstadgroup and bringing about his internalization of an extremist ideology. 

His ultimate arrest on terrorism-related charges was similarly influenced by more than convictions alone. First, there was the shock brought about by the chance viewing of a propaganda video in which a Palestinian victim of Israeli aggression closely resembled his own mother. Second, the murder of Van Gogh by Mohammed Bouyeri, who had developed into a friend and role model for the interviewee, proved to be an inspirational event that brought about a desire for emulation. The experiences of Samir Azzouz, another inner-circle Hofstadgroup participant similarly problematize the role of beliefs in bringing about jihadist terrorism. Just prior to his final arrest in October 2005, Azzouz had recorded a videotaped message that appears to refer to an impending attack. Copying jihadist role models such as Osama bin-Laden in speech and attire, with a weapon beside him, Azzouz delivered an emotional message steeped in religious language and references to the Quran. Clearly, extremist convictions were an important  element of both his motivation and justification for what appeared to be the planned use of terrorist violence. Yet, a look at his broader involvement process reveals that those beliefs may have mostly had the latter function; justifying violence that was primarily motivated by outrage over the perceived injustices committed against Muslims in war zones on the one hand, and a deep and personal hatred for the Dutch authorities on the other.  Essentially, his political grievances and his personal animosity towards those he saw as having mistreated him and his family, were catalyzed and justified through the jihadist ideology he adopted. The latter may even have had a primarily enabling, rather than motivating, function in his planned acts of terrorist violence. Had either of these latter two examples been assessed solely through a ‘radicalization’ based perspective centered on the role of ideas, many of the crucial elements constituting their involvement pathways would have been missed. While few scholars or authoritative interpretations of radicalization would claim that only beliefs matter, the implicit emphasis put on the role of convictions deserves to be critically examined by examples such as the Hofstadgroup case study from which this paper takes its inspiration. The bigger challenge for radicalization-based approaches remains, however, their inability to explain the discrepancy between the many apparent or alleged adherents of a particular extremist worldview, be it secular or religious in nature, and the much smaller number of individuals who actually translate such views into violent behavior. It is here that the concept of fanaticism can make a difference.

Revisiting Fanaticism
Described as the ‘pinnacle of psychological analyses of the terrorist’ by a leading terrorism scholar, Taylor’s 1991 book The Fanatic offers a detailed account of when and how extremist beliefs can lead to the adoption of violent means. Despite this endorsement, citations of the work reveal that its impact has largely been made outside of the boundaries of terrorism research. Although referenced in several publications on terrorism,few authors in this field have engaged with it in-depth and neither has Taylor revisited it in detail in subsequent work. This is unfortunate, given that fanaticism provides a behaviorally-oriented perspective on if and when extremist beliefs can lead to terrorist violence. It is this element of conditionality that sets fanaticism apart from radicalization. The key question that many radicalization interpretations cannot address is why most radicals never become terrorists. Fanaticism’s utility lies in its ability to provide at least the beginnings of an answer. At the outset, it is important to state that fanaticism should not be treated as a pathological state of mind, nor should fanatics be seen as intrinsically ‘different’ individuals. The fanatic and the ‘normal’ individual essentially occupy different points on the same behavioral continuum. Instead, fanaticism is defined as behavior that displays ‘excessive enthusiasm’ for certain religious or political beliefs. Fanatical convictions can influence behavior because they essentially prescribe a variety of rules that link an individual’s current action to distant outcomes. For instance, religious belief can motivate specific behavior by connecting distant outcomes, such as salvation in an afterlife, to daily behavior such as prayer. For the vast majority of people, religious or political beliefs are not the only influence on their behavior. But for the fanatic, “the influence of ideology is such that it excludes or attenuates other social, political or personal forces that might be expected to control and influence behavior.” Fanatical behavior encompasses ten qualities. 

These are, 1) an excessive focusing on issues of concern to the fanatic, 2) a worldview that is solely based on ideological convictions, 3) an insensitivity to others and to ‘normal’ social pressures, 4) a loss of critical judgment in that the fanatic is apt to pursue ends and utilize
means that seem to run contrary to his or her personal interests and 5) a surprising tolerance for inconsistency and incompatibility in the beliefs held. People engaged in fanatical behavior are further apt to display 6) great certainty in the appropriateness of the actions taken, 7) a simplified view of the world, 8) high resistance to facts or interpretations that undermine their convictions, 9) disdain for the victims of the fanatic’s behavior and 10) the construction of a social environment that makes it easier to sustain fanatical views.This operationalization of fanaticism allows researchers and counterterrorism professionals to identify, at least to some extent, individuals who are behaviorally more likely to be strongly influenced by their beliefs. 

For practitioners, these qualities may offer a useful complement to existing threat assessment procedures; not as a ‘profiling’ tool, but, for instance, as a means for assessing the relative likeliness for participants in an extremist group to act on their beliefs. The ten factors outlined above make clear that fanatical behavior is based on more than mere adherence to radical or extremist beliefs. Particularly interesting in this regard is the reference to the construction of a supportive social environment, as this fits with the finding that the vast majority of terrorist violence is perpetrated by groups. The radical or extremist group appears to provide catalyzing conditions, increasing the likeliness that convictions will influence behavior. Like any single factor underlying involvement in terrorism, fanaticism alone is insufficient to explain violent behavior. The likeliness that fanatical convictions can lead to violent behavior is tied to the presence of three contextual factors. The first is millenarianism, or the belief that the world is facing an impending and apocalyptic disaster or change. The very imminence of millenarian beliefs can strengthen their ideological control over individual behavior, as the consequences of the believer’s actions are no longer relegated to a distant future. Additionally, some ideologies advocate violent action as a way of hastening the advent of a new world order. 

The second factor is the totality of ideological control; when there is little to no ‘public space’ in which the ideology and its alternatives can be freely debated, or where others are likely to challenge the fanatic’s views, the ideology’s influence over every aspect of its adherents’ lives will increase.The third factor is the militancy of the ideological belief itself, in other words the degree to which it provides, or can be construed to provide, motivations or justifications for the use of force. Fanaticism in Practice: Returning to the Hofstadgroup By providing a nuanced understanding of how and when fanatical convictions can lead to violence, fanaticism allows the specificity problem inherent in many radicalization-based approaches to be addressed. The following paragraphs will demonstrate this by returning to the Hofstadgroup case study discussed above. First of all, it is striking that Bouyeri, the man who murdered Van Gogh in 2004, scores highest on the ten qualities of fanaticism. Starting in 2003, this individual’s life began to revolve virtually exclusively around his Salafi-Jihadist
beliefs, which also became the sole schema through which he interpreted the world around him. The fact that Bouyeri claimed full responsibility in court for murdering Van Gogh, and that at an earlier stage he quit his studies and his job, demonstrate an insensitivity to ‘normal’ social pressures such as the need for education and employment and appear contrary to his own best interests.

Further signs of fanaticism were the gruesome way in which Bouyeri murdered his victim, almost decapitating him as he lay dead or dying on an Amsterdam street, and the killer’s statement in court that he would have done the same had family members been the blasphemers. The latter indicates a high degree of certainty in the justness of his actions, whereas the former speaks of a dismissive attitude towards his victims. Finally, by limiting his social circle to like-minded individuals, Van Gogh’s assailant construed precisely the type social environment that reinforced and sustained his extremist views.[92] This application of the qualities of fanaticism enables a structured examination of the beliefs that motivated Bouyeri to violence. Yet, many of these qualities were shared, if not to the same degree, by the assailant’s inner-circle compatriots. Addressing this disparity more fully requires turning to the arguments about the circumstances under which fanatical beliefs are more likely to lead to violent behavior. One of these contingencies concerns the militancy of the ideological beliefs. Given that Bouyeri shared an adherence to Salafi-Jihadist views with the Hofstadgroup’s inner-circle, this factor fails to offer a satisfactory explanation of why only the assailant acted on those beliefs. A more substantial distinction presents itself with regard to millenarianism. Van Gogh’s assailant shared with the wider group the belief that a global war against Islam was taking place, yet it is only in the former’s writings that this struggle is given an apocalyptic flavor and presented as the violent apogee of a titanic historical struggle between the forces of good and evil, one that demands immediate action from Islam’s ‘true believers’.[93] By contrast, in the videotaped threat recorded by the other inner-circle participant discussed above, arguably the most militant expression found within the broader group, millenarian motifs are absent.

The most salient difference between Bouyeri and the other extremists in the Hofstadgroup’s inner circle, is tied to the notion of the totality of ideological control. Essentially, the less someone is exposed to contrarian points of view, the more likely it is that his or her fanaticism will come to exert behavioral influence. Most Hofstadgroup participants, even those within its militant core, retained at least some connections to the world outside the group through old friends, school, work or because they still lived with their parents. By contrast, Bouyeri’s socialization into Salafi-Jihadism had gone hand-in-hand with his withdrawal from society; he lived alone since 2000, quit his part-time job and his studies following the death of his mother in December 2001, and stopped his volunteer work for an Amsterdam community center in July 2003. As he cut off contacts with his old friends, his social circle became limited to fellow Hofstadgroup participants.  Bouyeri was “always at home reading and translating.”[98] This social setting reinforced and spurred his militancy, while his isolation from non-radical social circles allowed his burgeoning extremism to grow unchecked by counterarguments or simple exposure to different points of views. Within these self-imposed confines, Bouyeri’s violent convictions could become all-encompassing and ever-present, exerting influence on his behavior to a degree not found among his compatriots. In short, Van Gogh’s killer acted on his beliefs while his fellow extremists in the Hofstadgroup did not, because he was the most fanatical of them, because his views had a notable apocalyptical edge and, most saliently, because they were adopted and nurtured in a social setting characterized by a lack of countervailing opinions not experienced to the same degree by his compatriots. 

Conclusion
Since radicalization made its entry into the debate on terrorism in the early 2000s, numerous scholars have developed the concept beyond the shortcomings of its early conceptualizations. Yet in much of the broader literature on terrorism, and particularly among government agencies tasked with preventing and responding to terrorism, radicalization is still too often perceived of as a process in which the adoption of radical beliefs precedes and leads to participation in terrorist violence. Not only are radicalism, extremism and terrorism distinct concepts that are not causally linked to one another, but empirical research has demonstrated that the majority of radical individuals never turn their convictions into violent acts and that even actual terrorists are not necessarily or primarily motivated by their extremist beliefs. Ideology is without a doubt a key variable to explain  involvement in terrorism. Yet as demonstrated by the case study of the Dutch homegrown jihadist ‘Hofstadgroup’, from which this article drew its inspiration, motives for terrorism are diverse and frequently multicausal, extending beyond the motivating or justifying influence of convictions alone. By raising beliefs as the key element to understanding terrorism, what me might call ‘mainstream’ radicalization not only incorrectly inflates beliefs with behavior, but overstates the explanatory potential of this variable while leaving others underemphasized. One of the goals of this study was to highlight these issues and their ongoing influence. The authors also wanted to suggest a way to better understand the potential for beliefs to influence violent behavior.To this end, the second part of the article revisited the concept of ‘fanaticism’ and used the Hofstadgroup case study to illustrate its ability to inform thinking on the potential for extremist beliefs to inspire terrorist violence. The benefits of fanaticism as a concept, lie in its ability to offer a way for gauging if and when extremist views are likely to inspire violent behavior. It overcomes radicalization’s inability to explain why only some radicals will act on their beliefs by identifying ten qualities of fanaticism as a way of assessing the degree to which someone is influenced by their beliefs. Furthermore, it highlights three contextual factors that, when present, will increase the likeliness of fanatical beliefs inspiring violent behavior. 

This attention to contingent factors in particular recommends fanaticism as an alternative to radicalization for understanding the role of extremist beliefs in bringing about involvement in terrorist violence. Fanaticism is a practical addition to radicalization-based thinking as far as the role of convictions in inspiring violence is concerned. It is both suited to retrospective analysis of the type academics are likely to conduct and can also be of utility in the context of threat assessment work as a tool to gauge both the degree of fanaticism and the likeliness that a group or particular individuals within that group will turn violence because of it. Police and intelligence agencies are increasingly expected to prevent terrorist attacks from occurring. To do so, they need to carry out the difficult work of allocating limited resources to particular groups or individuals based on their perceived potential for future engagement in violence. As most radicals never become involved in violence, merely looking at indicators of ideological radicalization is a poor way to go about this. Because it provides concrete means for assessing if a certain individual is likely to act on those beliefs, fanaticism can be a particularly useful concept for those working to prevent involvement in terrorism. A further practical benefit of fanaticism as a concept, is that it can help shift democratic states’ counterterrorism policy and practice away from a focus on ideas toward the policing of behavior. The emphasis that ‘radicalization’ places on the role of ideas as a precursor to potential involvement in terrorist violence, means that efforts to detect and prevent this phenomenon have similarly tended to look at expressions of adherence to radical and extremist beliefs. Beyond questions of efficacy, the legal protections placed on free speech and beliefs in democratic societies make this a controversial practice. Fanaticism stresses behavioral indicators that can be used to provide an, albeit rudimentary, assessment of the degree to which someone’s actions are influenced by extremist convictions. This makes it a substantively different concept than radicalization, one that can perhaps be acted upon to detect and prevent involvement in terrorism based upon behavioral indicators rather than signs of adherence to radical or extremist beliefs alone. Our advocacy of the concept of fanaticism is not intended as a replacement for radicalization-based thinking as a whole or an attempt at rebranding it, but as an addition to the debate about how and why participation in terrorist groups and terrorist violence can occur. Revisiting fanaticism will hopefully contribute to the larger discussion about how to attain a more accurate understanding of the role that radical and extremist convictions can play in these processes.

About the Authors: 
Bart Schuurman is an Assistant Professor at Leiden University’s Institute of Security and Global Affairs. Max Taylor is a Visiting Professor at University College London’s Department of Security and Crime Sciences.



2018: The Year in Jihadism


By Lorenzo Vidino,
www.lawfareblog.com
Dated:December 31, 2018


2018 represented a sharp departure from previous years in terms of the sheer number of jihadist attacks in the West. Though attacks in Western Europe and North America were on a steady rise prior to this year, in 2018 they plunged, and jihadist attacks in the West in 2018 were fairly unsophisticated and significantly less lethal. Meanwhile, declines in other indicators traditionally used to assess the strength of the jihadist movement—numbers of arrests and individuals departing for conflict zones to fight alongside jihadist groups—point to an overall stagnation in jihadist activities in Western Europe and North America.
That is not to say that the threat is gone. Officials in most Western countries continue to monitor large pockets of support for the Islamic State and, more broadly, jihadist ideology. From the perspective of European and American law enforcement, many of these pockets, which range from isolated fanboys to structured networks, could be potentially ready to activate themselves and carry out attacks. And, despite efforts by major social media providers, jihadism still thrives online and as a subculture among some disenfranchised Western Muslims.
Nonetheless, the territorial collapse of the Islamic State had a major impact on jihadist activities in the West. This decline—paired with a relative surge in right wing extremism in many Western countries—is leading authorities to partially refocus resources from jihadism to other security challenges, such as different forms of extremism, cyber security and information warfare. But any reassessment of how best to tackle terrorism in 2019 after the relative lull of 2018 should include a consideration of what lessons have been learned in terms of countering and understanding extremism over the last few years. In particular, it is worth revisiting the pre-2011 environment to understand what may be in store. To some degree, the current situation is reminiscent of 2011, when the death of Osama bin Laden, a lull in terrorist attacks in the West, optimism about the early days of the Arab Spring and the general fatigue after a decade of War on Terror led many to think that the jihadist threat was on the decline, if not completely evaporated, in the West.
This assessment, fairly widespread in 2011, proved dramatically incorrect in the following years, as the Islamic State and other jihadist groups fighting in the Syrian civil war attracted some 6,000 Western foreign fighters and inspired an even larger number of sympathizers. Many Western policymakers initially failed to see the long-term security implications of the jihadist mobilization to Syria. In some cases, officials held the view that travel to Syria by foreign fighters was preferable, buying into the axiom that “if they fight over there, they don’t kill us here.” It became dramatically clear in the following years that the presence of Western foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq triggered various problematic dynamics. Not only, in fact, did foreign fighters exacerbate the conflict, but many of them planned, instigated and executed dozens of terrorist attacks in Europe and North America. The recognition that conflicts provide fuel to the fire of radicalization—particularly those that have a high symbolic value and are relatively easy for foreign fighters to join—should guide policymakers in the coming years. The lesson may prove particularly important in light of the forthcoming withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria and from other conflict zones in the region as well.
Similarly, in 2011 collective knowledge on the process of radicalization was extremely limited.  Over the last few years, terrorism scholars and practitioners alike have devoted enormous attention to trying to understand why individuals radicalize. The results of these efforts are admittedly modest. Most agree that radicalization is a complex and highly individualized process and that there is no common profile of a “radicalized” individuals. Beyond these points, there is little consensus. But the flurry of radicalization theories demonstrates the importance of a multidisciplinary approach, suggesting that a better understanding of radicalization is crucial to prevent and reverse it. While those in the field no longer place as much value on traditional models based exclusively on socio-economic analyses, theories based in psychology and social networks have gained ground.
This research and the corresponding multidisciplinary approach, though it represents a greatly expanded body of knowledge, is still in its early stages. Despite the lull in attacks and decreased attention paid to jihadism, it should be expanded to improve radicalization prevention and de-radicalization efforts in coming years. Moreover, many of the lessons learned with jihadist radicalization are likely to prove useful when dealing with other ideologies.
 The last seven years also show that, without effective management, prisons can be potential incubators of radicalization. Among militants aligned with the Islamic State, high percentages (in some European countries, more than 60 percent) possessed a criminal background. For many of these individuals, the redemptive conversion from street thug to holy warrior took place behind bars. This trend is not entirely new: Since the 1990s, in fact, authorities in most Western countries have struggled with the phenomenon of charismatic inmates radicalizing fellow prisoners. But in some countries, the challenge may metastasize in the immediate future: the large numbers of arrests related to the Islamic State in recent years have led to the incarceration of an unprecedented number of radicalized individuals throughout Europe and, to a lesser degree, the United States. Resources and expertise are needed to prevent the “ideological contagion” of the larger prison population and to attempt, when possible, to deradicalize those detained for terrorism.      
During the Islamic State-related mobilization, a great deal of popular reporting focused on the role of online propaganda and networks in facilitating radicalization. While it would be highly incorrect to think that most people radicalize solely online—or, similarly, that the Islamic State attracted tens of thousands of supporters in the West only because of its slick social media presence—it is undeniable that digital communications played an unprecedented role in the latest mobilization. Since 2011, there have been major developments in contrasting online jihadism. Governments and internet companies have at times held divergent positions, and the desire to protect free speech has often clashed with security concerns. Nonetheless, increased (though highly imperfect) government-industry cooperation has succeeded in marginalizing extremist material, pushing content and accounts that promulgate such material from major platforms like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube onto lesser-known online platforms. While these smaller platforms do not enjoy the same audience as their better-known counterparts, the downside is that some utilize encryption and are more difficult for law enforcement to monitor. Eliminating online terrorist content is a chimera—but the ongoing effort to marginalize it must adapt and continue into the future.
Across the board, it is imperative that legal systems are up to speed in countering new developments of the threat. Many challenges from the last few years stem from the fact that most Western countries’ terrorism laws were unprepared to cope with the quantitative increase and qualitative shifts in radicalization—a deficiency whose side effects will linger for years to come. For example, at the outset of the recent mobilization, many European countries did not have laws criminalizing participation in a terrorist organization abroad. Even in those countries in which such laws existed, prosecuting terrorism financing and bringing evidence from a battlefield to a civilian court are often difficult. As a result, of the over 1,000 foreign fighters from EU member states who returned to their native countries, only a small percentage have been prosecuted. Moreover, though national and transnational cooperation mechanisms have improved significantly, the last few years clearly demonstrated that inadequate legal tools constitute a major challenge to effective counterterrorism. 
Many unpredictable factors will shape the next phase of jihadism in the West. It is unclear whether there will be another conflict as attractive as Syria was in the early 2010s, what the future will hold for the Islamic State and whether al-Qaeda or other groups will emerge or re-emerge as leaders of the global jihadist movement. These events are largely beyond the control of Western policymakers and counter-terrorism apparatuses. But Western countries can and should learn from the experiences of the last few years to adapt to the current threat and preemptively prepare for future challenges.
About the Author:
Dr. Lorenzo Vidino is the Director of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University. An expert on Islamism in Europe and North America, his research over the past 15 years has focused on the mobilization dynamics of jihadist networks in the West, governmental counter-radicalization policies, and the activities of Muslim Brotherhood-inspired organizations in the West. The author of several books and numerous articles, Dr. Vidino’s most prominent work is "The New Muslim Brotherhood in the West," a book published in 2010 by Columbia University Press, with an Arabic edition released the following year by the Al Mesbar Studies and Research Center.
Reference:

Sunday, 20 January 2019

The Story of an American Islamic State Member Allegedly Captured in Syria


By Seamus Hughes, Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens 
www.lawfareblog.com 
Dated: January 6, 2019,


On the morning of Jan. 6, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced that it had captured five Islamic State foreign fighters in Syria, including two reported U.S. citizens. The SDF identified the American captives as Zaid Abed al-Hamid, a 35-year-old from an undisclosed location in the U.S, and Warren Christopher Clark, a 34-year-old from Houston, Tex. If Clark’s capture is verified, it adds another chapter to years-long efforts to investigate into American Islamic State members. 

Clark is one of several dozen Americans to join the Islamic State out of the around 295 whom intelligence officials claim have traveled or attempted to travel to Syria and Iraq to join the terrorist group. The Program on Extremism at George Washington University, where we work, identified over 73 Americans by true legal name whom we know joined jihadist groups. We interviewed law enforcement officials, prosecutors, and defense attorneys, and attended relevant court proceedings. We also conducted several interviews with American travelers who returned from the territories held by the Islamic State.

Warren Clark came to our attention in 2016, when we were researching the identities and pathways of Americans who traveled to join the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. An African-American convert to Islam and former schoolteacher, Clark was known to friends in Texas as a fervent Islamic State supporter. As one friend of Clark’s described him, “[W]e assumed he was an FBI informant because no one is that open about liking terrorism.” During the early days of the conflict in Syria, Clark left Texas to join the Islamic State, but seemingly stayed below the public radar until Mosul was liberated from the Islamic State by Iraqi forces in the summer of 2017.

After the Islamic State was expelled from Mosul, families returned to homes that terrorists had temporarily stolen. In one of these homes, a returning resident discovered documents related to foreigners who had joined the Islamic State. One stood out as particularly novel: a cover letter and resume from a Texas man, identifying himself as Abu Muhammad al-Ameriki, who wanted to join the Islamic State. With all the formality of a job application, the letter begins: “I’m looking to get a position teaching English to students in the Islamic State. I was born and raised in the United States and have always loved teaching.” Highlighting previous teaching experience in Texas and Turkey, the document concludes, “As my resume shows, I have a variety of skills as well as work-experience in education which I believe will make me an excellent English teacher. Please feel free to contact me at your convenience. Thank you for taking the time to consider me.”

After contacting the Program on Extremism, the Mosul source sent us a copy of the documents. Though the cover letter was signed “Abu Muhammad al-Ameriki,” Clark used his birth name in the email address included on the letter. Using the name Warren Clark, we cross-referenced the dates and locations in his resume with public records. After speaking with multiple law enforcement sources, we confirmed the veracity of the cover letter and resume in the fall of 2017. (In February 2018, a local Houston news source reported that the University of Houston, where Clark studied, had confirmed that the information on the cover letter and resume matched that of Clark.)

Many American travelers who left for Syria in the years directly after 2011 did so in reaction to atrocities committed by the Syrian regime. Some were interested in the violence and fighting that was portrayed in propaganda videos released by the Islamic State. Others were drawn to the siren song of the self-declared Caliphate.

Clark appears to fall into the final category. By teaching English to young Iraqis, he seems to have wanted to participate in Islamic State’s wider utopian state-building project. Clearly, he hoped that his experience teaching English in Turkey, along with his degree in political science from the University of Houston, would serve him well in this effort.

Clark, who is likely facing a number of federal terrorism charges in the United States, will be the fifteenth American known to have returned home after joining Islamic State. Such returnees face an uncertain future. Previous such individuals have been sentenced to an average of around ten years in prison. At least one returnee has taken part in assisting authorities with speaking to and preventing other radicalized Americans from attempting to join the Islamic State, and has received leniency from the courts as a result. Others have also cooperated with authorities by providing details on the location of Islamic State training camps and the identities of other Islamic State members.

Many returnees, however, will spend years in prison without access to any rehabilitation program designed for their situation. Unlike a number of European states, the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) does not offer any form of deradicalization program for extremist prisoners. While the BOP is attempting to improve this situation, there is still much work to be done before a policy takes shape and is implemented. The quicker this happens the better; in the past, prisons in Europe have served as breeding grounds for extremists who use their reputations and knowledge to radicalize and recruit vulnerable petty criminals. The U.S. must ensure that it does not allow the same to happen here.

There is no way to tell yet how useful Clark may be to authorities seeking more insights on Islamic state operations and membership, or how long he may spend in prison. However, after years within the Islamic State, he may prove to be a treasure trove of information. This may help him make the case for a lighter sentence if he is prosecuted. In the meantime, however, Clark may come to wish that this was one job opening he passed on.

Reference:

ISIS is far from being defeated as a fighting force or ideology


By Tim Lister  www.cnn.com
Dated: January 09, 2019


On December 19, President Trump declared: "We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency." US troops there, he said in a video the same day, are "all coming back, and they're coming back now."

On January 7, the President revised "now" to "leaving at a proper pace while at the same time continuing to fight ISIS," though he claimed it was no different from what he'd said before.But in between both statements, his Defense Secretary James Mattis and the US special envoy on fighting ISIS, Brett McGurk, had resigned. Senior Republican Senators had openly criticized the abrupt withdrawal. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday that "there is no change in our commitment to the defeat of the caliphate or of ISIS globally," but has also maintained that it can be done without the 2,000 US troops that currently support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in northern-eastern Syria.

For its part, the US Defense Department says the withdrawal is conditions-based and not subject to "an arbitrary timeline." The rest of this article could be spent trying to divine the US policy in Syria. But it's easier to ask whether ISIS is defeated or not. For sure, it's a shadow of what is was at the zenith of the self-declared Caliphate, when it controlled territory the size of Hungary. But it is far from vanquished, either as a fighting force or an ideology. Beyond Syria, there are signs that it's regenerating in Iraq. A UN report in August estimated that some 20,000 to 30,000 ISIS fighters were still at large in the two countries.
And ISIS affiliates -- from West Africa to Indonesia -- show no sign of folding their tents.

The "Hajin Pocket"
Several hundred ISIS fighters still control territory along the Syria-Iraq border. It was there last weekend that two British soldiers were reportedly wounded by a rocket or missile attack during clashes in the "Hajin pocket", an area of some 20 square kilometers where networks of caves and tunnels enable ISIS fighters to survive. Kurdish forces on the ground, supported by western special forces and airstrikes, have battled to eliminate the ISIS presence in Hajin for months. Between December 9 and 15 alone, the US-led coalition conducted 208 airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, the vast majority around Hajin.

Hardly a sign of operations winding down, let alone the liquidation of ISIS in Syria. ISIS has also been able to conduct offensive operations. It has exploited poor weather to attack Kurdish forces, killing dozens of them in one engagement in November and releasing videos of those it had captured. There are also signs that ISIS cells are active around Raqqa, once the group's self-declared capital. ISIS claimed on Monday that it was responsible for a suicide attack in the city in which several people were killed or injured.

Recovering in Iraq
There are also indications that ISIS is regrouping in Iraq, albeit in small numbers. Iraqi officials and counter-terrorism analysts say ISIS cells have infiltrated the sparsely-populated Hamrin mountains south of Mosul, which was the last major city in Iraq occupied by the group. They have exploited the fault line between the government in Baghdad and the Kurdish regional authorities -- and the fact that civilians have not returned to many villages because of poor security and infrastructure.

Security in Baghdad is much improved, symbolized by the reopening of the high-security Green Zone in December after 15 years. But ISIS, which regards Shia Muslims as apostates, targeted Shia neighborhoods of the Iraqi capital in simultaneous bomb attacks in October and November. Elsewhere, it has assassinated security officials in Diyala province, Sunni tribal leaders in Nineveh province and carried out ambushes on the main highway linking Baghdad and Mosul. A car bomb near a restaurant in Mosul in November killed several people.

The pattern of coalition airstrikes in Iraq over the past few months also suggests that ISIS retains a presence in the deserts of western Iraq. Nor is ISIS short of money. It is believed to have stashed away hundreds of millions of dollars from oil revenues and taxes levied while it occupied large parts of Iraq and Syria. Long before the Caliphate was declared, ISIS ran sophisticated extortion rackets in Mosul. One source tells CNN some of its cash pile has been laundered through businesses in Turkey.

In October, the US Treasury imposed sanctions today on an Iraq-based money services business that had been moving money for ISIS, describing it as part of a "complex network of money services businesses, hawalas [informal money exchange businesses] and financial facilitators funding terrorism across the Middle East."
At the same time, Kurdish commandos in Iraq arrested eight men in a raid on an ISIS financial network in northern Iraq.

The ISIS diaspora

The appeal of ISIS' ideology -- which once drew hundreds of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria -- has dimmed with the loss of the Caliphate -- but it has not died.
Affiliates pledging their allegiance, in West Africa, Libya, Yemen, the Philippines and Indonesia to name just a few places, are still active. A pro-ISIS group is suspected of bombing a shopping mall in the Philippines on New Year's Eve, an attack which killed two people.

ISIS may not be able to direct attacks in Europe any more, but radicalized individuals still aspire to carry out attacks in its name. Cherif Chekatt, who killed five people in Strasbourg in December before being shot dead, had recorded a video of support for ISIS. He had been radicalized in prison and was on France's security watchlist -- but so are 29,000 others.
According to security analysts Globsec, 97% of the jihadis responsible for terror attacks in France since 2012 were already known either for radicalization or by the police.

But the task of tracking militants who might move from word to deed is beyond security agencies -- in France or anywhere. Should ISIS show remarkable powers of recuperation despite the international efforts to destroy it, its appeal to would-be militants beyond the Middle East might grow again.

The future
The current situation in Syria and Iraq suggests that recuperation has begun. A vast stretch of territory either side of their border lacks governance and security. Rural and remote, it is ideal for an insurgency, especially one as deep-rooted and well-organized as ISIS. Hassan Hassan, who has followed the group's evolution and is co-author of "ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror", sees the group's strategy as "sahraa, sahwat, sawlat" -- the Arabic words for the desert, opponents within the Sunni community, and hit-and-run attacks.

The group's roots are rural; it has long maintained that holding cities is irrelevant to its existence. It has focused on attacking Sunni "collaborators" for over a decade and is now staging ambushes and "flying checkpoints" in Iraq to make its presence felt. 

It may be helped by what is frequently an arbitrary campaign by the Iraqi state to punish alleged ISIS sympathizers. New research by Kristen Kao and Mara Revkin at the University of Gothenburg shows that this heavy-handed "victors' justice" may yet push some of the Sunni population back into the arms of ISIS.

Should the US withdrawal from Syria proceed without a deal between the Kurds and the Syrian regime and without assurances from Turkey that it will not attack the Kurds -- which it regards as a terrorist group -- the coalition stitched together to defeat ISIS will quickly unravel.

The idea that Turkey can pick up the slack against ISIS is unrealistic: it lacks the capacity and access to areas where ISIS is still active. And whatever guarantees it might offer, Ankara's prime target inside Syria would be not ISIS, but the Kurds. As Hassan Hassan has written, if the US "simply leaves, new wars will almost certainly be reignited between Turkey and the YPG, the Arabs and the Kurds, and the opposition and the YPG."
And that would suit the remnants of ISIS fine.